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China…bloated, blasted or booming?? Or controlled…??

In a recent BusinessWeek article, China has been finger pointed as …what, indeed? A bloated economy, a blasted opportunity already or, yet, a booming system?

I believe it is about a mix of all three, for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, you may teach me that “economy” is not a one-man band show, but it is a systemic condition and a set of actions, distributed evenly across the social system and the resources portfolio, to foster balanced and sustainable growth and wealth. Now, as it seems, the fast forward mode the Chinese economy has taken since a few years has completely forgot about the above, leaving behind significant parts of the system, both physical (e.g. the inner mainland, the quality control system, the financial canvass….) and cultural (aka laws and regulations, some sort of ethics.. as Westerners could say something about it, but nevermind..) to make the growth a systemic condition, thus a de facto and furthermore sustainable overtime.

What you see is not what you get, in case of China, it is rather what you believe you see is what you always wanted to get…

Secondly, it is important to notice that the surge of such an economic powerhouse, or whatever it is considering the above statements, has a massive impact over the geopolitical balances of the influenced area. Now this is interesting, since that bit of Far East has always been one of the most interesting counterparts of the US global power display, leveraging masses of people, a rather effective cultural approach to any given challenge, pretty much able to respond to the Calvinist US approach to life in general, since the respect and worship of a “higher” something (emperor, the party, the hierarchy, the company…) moved masses of energy and people in one coordinated direction. Now, that power is somewhat challenged by “modernity”, and I believe that Internet (May the Google be with you!!!! No, thanks anyway…) is playing a massive role as a “propaganda” machine that undermines the oneness of such societies, thus minimising their inertia. US may somewhat rejoice???? Open to arguments, here.

Loosing inertia, loosing momentum does favor a weaker geopolitical influence and strategy effectiveness, since the other leverage, economy, is linked to the above, and war is (thanks Whatever God) no longer a viable option (at least not in such a format that can impact the entire Far East area…).

Still, China may have been overrated or badly analysed in a systemic fashion not to preclude the “new kid on the block” kind of effect, and it may have not entirely exploited its geopolitical role (yet), but it definitely remains a factor and an opportunity. A factor because its very existence causes an interesting turmoil on a plethora of different subjects, from energy global strategy (what will keep the Chinese engine work? Middle East oil?? Boff, although Iraqis may need some cash to exploit their seemingly spectacular oil fields, but what about the Marines???…African and other bad-boys countries one??? Maybe so…Gas from the Asian plains?? Not considering the infrastructure plans apt to move gas from east westward.. Nuclear??? What to see that at UN council…Coal??? What about the entire planet getting pissed off???) to financial equilibrium (Chinese cash is still financing a good quarter of the US debt, isn’t it??? And Western financial institutions are buying shares of Chinese banks, right?) to cultural standpoints for the next millennium (that 1.6-whatever billion people may have a saying on culture, poetry, literature, science or not????).

I am thus curious to see the evolution of all this, and although we kept it to a small-scale bar (pub, for some of the AngloSaxons amongst you) chat, thus inaccurate in its details, yet there is a lethal weapon the “rest of the world” may use to hinder and guide the evolution into a giant with feet of clay: well distributed amount of power and a dollar rain in the right pockets.

That will stop every evolution.


UPDATE. About the opportunity thing,  guess it is all down to the fact that, to be part of a club, you need the most appropriate outfit and gear… that the club itself does produce… you make the math and get over the details….

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